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Another Possible Tropical System off the Southeast Coast.

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For the second weekend in a row there is a good chance we could see an early season tropical storm off the Carolina coasts. Just like last weekend we aren’t talking about a major storm, but with many people heading to the beach this weekend there could be some impacts. The main threat from rain and clouds wouldn’t be until Sunday or Monday. There are still many things to work out with this system.

The National Hurricane center gives it a 60% chance of developing.

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There is lots of dry air to the west of the storm and some light shear but conditions are marginal for some strengthening.

5-24-2012 9-26-03 PM

Winds shear:

wg8sht

Sea Surface Temperatures:

midatl_ostia

Spaghetti Plots:

tracks

Intensity Forecasts:

aal94_2012052500_intensity_early

Model Plots for Monday via the Futurecast :

mgWeb_WRF_20120524-210000_ASE_ECONUS_F00720000_PgeneralSfcPres_R12km

Now if this thing can get it’s act together it could become Tropical Storm Beryl. The main impacts would be strong rip currents and high surf this weekend and eventually some heavy rain. The movement is going to be very erratic which is common for weak systems as the low level center may jump around quite a bit. I wouldn’t be changing my plans to go to the coast at all just be aware that depending on what happens it might be a little cloudy, windy and wet Sunday and Monday. If are going to the beach please pay attention to all warnings form lifeguards and stay tuned to the weather.

  • http://www.facebook.com/BIGB1165 Brian Bigb Miller

    DO U THANK THAT THE FRONT THAT’S IN THE IOWA AREA NOW WILL SHIFT TROPICAL STORM CAUSE I WAS LOOKING AT A MODEL AND SHOWS THAT FRONT SHIFTING THIS WAY. DONT GET ME WRONG IM NOT A METEOROLOGIST JUST LOVE ALL WEATHER THANKS

    • wxbrad

      That’s still a possibility but I thing that what we see in these first model runs is the system being pulled west along the front. Fronts have a tough time blasting through this far south this late in the the spring. More likely the huge ridge will win out.

      • http://www.facebook.com/BIGB1165 Brian Bigb Miller

        OK I WAS WOUNDING ABOUT THAT CAUSE OF ALL THE DRY AIR. THIS ONE MIGHT DO LIKE THE ONE A FEW YEARS AGO THAT KEPT GOING AND GOING AROUND OUT THERE CANT REMEMBER THE NAME ITS CRAZY HOW THESE EARLY STORMS DO IS THAT BECAUSE OF THE WATER TEMPS. MIXED WITH THE UPDRAFT/HUM. THANKS

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