Another Possible Tropical System off the Southeast Coast.

For the second weekend in a row there is a good chance we could see an early season tropical storm off the Carolina coasts. Just like last weekend we aren’t talking about a major storm, but with many people heading to the beach this weekend there could be some impacts. The main threat from rain and clouds wouldn’t be until Sunday or Monday. There are still many things to work out with this system.

The National Hurricane center gives it a 60% chance of developing.


There is lots of dry air to the west of the storm and some light shear but conditions are marginal for some strengthening.

5-24-2012 9-26-03 PM

Winds shear:


Sea Surface Temperatures:


Spaghetti Plots:


Intensity Forecasts:


Model Plots for Monday via the Futurecast :


Now if this thing can get it’s act together it could become Tropical Storm Beryl. The main impacts would be strong rip currents and high surf this weekend and eventually some heavy rain. The movement is going to be very erratic which is common for weak systems as the low level center may jump around quite a bit. I wouldn’t be changing my plans to go to the coast at all just be aware that depending on what happens it might be a little cloudy, windy and wet Sunday and Monday. If are going to the beach please pay attention to all warnings form lifeguards and stay tuned to the weather.