Rain is on the way that’s for sure but we also may be dealing with more than just rain late Sunday and again on Monday. There is a real threat for some strong to severe storms late Sunday and Monday. A strong upper low and frontal system will be heading our way Sunday morning with pockets of very heavy rain. There is some potential for flooding in the mountains and foothills with this rain we could see 1-3″ easily fall. From Sunday into Monday in the mountains and foothills.
Late in the day on Sunday we get into a break in the heavy rain and we get into the warm sector of the system. Meaning we will have lots of warm and humid air to work with. If there is any small break in the clouds or dare I say even some sun then we will have real trouble. There is already plenty of wind shear in place all that is lacking is fuel or instability for storms.
Right now Sunday has a low chance based on the SPC outlooks but I could easily see it going higher. especially if the 1st band of rain moves out quickly and the atmosphere reloads by evening.
My real concern Sunday evening is these supercell type storms that many of the short-range models are indicating will develop in South Carolina and move east-northeast into the late evening hours. There is loads of wind shear for severe weather but limited CAPE or thunderstorm fuel. Even a small amount of CAPE developing could result in more significant severe weather.
Then on Monday we could see another round of strong storms that could easily be severe again in the afternoon. That threat will mainly be in eastern North Carolina along the cold front. This threat needs to be watched very closely and stay tuned for further updates on this severe weather potential.