Heavy Rainfall Potential This Weekend

Get ready for weekend #2 of heavy rainfall around the Southeast. This time there is more moisture and a saturated ground in place for more widespread flooding. The combination of a cut-off low and a subtropical low over Florida combined with deep tropical moisture could really unload with some heavy rain. Here’s a quick discussion of the set-up with some select model guidance that is all pointing to the same concoction, start building an ARK!

Model Data from the NAM 4:

ECMWF Model:

The low centered to over Georgia and SC would just be pumping up deep tropical moisture into the region. That southeast up-slope originating in the deep tropics is a concern for the Southern mountains for sure. This set-up always beings some flooding to these areas of the mountains.

SREF Bufkit Soundings:

These are the most telling because of the 22 member mean showing anywhere from a low of .85” to a high of 3.5” for Charlotte.