We aren’t going to see a repeat of the widespread flooding rains from Sunday. In fact, we might only see a 40% chance of isolated storms at best. What we will lack in coverage of storms and rain we will make up for with strength.
A strong upper-level storm system and cold front will move in late today. Ahead of it the sun will come out and temperatures will climb close to 80°. Combine that with plenty of moisture and we have the ingredients for scattered severe storms.
The model may not look impressive when looking at Futurecast radar between 5-8pm.
Here’s the catch even though the radar looks unimpressive. Those storms that do get going will have tons of fuel to get very, very strong. CAPE values could be above 3,000 easily!
Now the 1st think you think about here is a tornado and yes there is a small chance. But rotating updrafts also produce very large hail especially when you have cold air aloft like we will have today. This was the case with this line back in Arkansas on Sunday.