A recurving Typhoon Nuri in the pacific will become a massive north Pacific storm this weekend. The results could be a huge arctic outbreak next week in the U.S.
This massive storm off the tip of the Aleutian Islands in Alaska this weekend will have a pressure as low as 920 mb. That’s basically a major hurricane by pressure standards.
GFS Model surface winds and pressure:
This storm will buckle the jet stream well up into the arctic which in turn will force a dip of the jet stream over the eastern half of the U.S. The jet stream works kind of like a water-bed. When you push down or up on one side the water will push up or down in another part.
300 mb winds and heights GFS model this weekend:
500mb winds an heights from the GFS model next week:
The net result will be a massive dip in the jet stream starting early next week that will drive arctic air deep into North America. This is true arctic air and incredibly cold by November standards. The source regions for this air will have roots right at the North Pole.
This arctic air and upper air pattern should start to lay down snow cover over most of Canada and even parts of the northern U.S. Which in time could make subsequent cold air outbreaks even colder. The temperatures forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models are about 20-30° below average for this time of the year.
The Arctic Oscillation which is an index that when it goes negative signals cold air and storminess for the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Is forecasted to drop into very negative territory next week. To put this dip in perspective I highlighted what a little dip around Halloween looked like when we got snow and cold all the way down into the Carolinas.
This is still pretty far out, but one thing is for sure. Someone is going to get very cold next week, the only question is how far south this gets and where the heart of the cold sets up shop. One thing is for sure this all point to a very chilly pattern for the rest of November. Stay tuned!