It’s only 10 days into December and people are already writing off this winter as being warm with no snow. Kind of funny so early to be downplaying the rest of the winter on just 10 days worth of weather. We are only 11% of the way into meteorological winter. Which means this is the equivalent of saying you are going to lose a football game 6 minutes into the 1st quarter.
The number one question asked of me in the past few days has been this. With the recent warm spell and the calendar turning to December the nature tendency is to wonder, but how soon we forget November. November in Charlotte was 1.5° below average and was the 12th coolest November since 1939.
With the calendar flipping over to December and the beginning of meteorological winter it’s time to start thinking about winter weather. In particular, snow and ice in the Charlotte region. Of all the weather I have to forecast snow might be the one thing that people ask and talk about more than any other. I think this might have to do with the unique blend of northern transplants who grew up with snow and the local southern residents who feel like they rarely see it. Either way this combination makes for a hot topic around snow time in the Charlotte region. Read more
Well looky here a little sneak attack of much-needed rain just might develop Wednesday-Friday for the Carolinas. Not that I’m complaining because we need the rain bad. The cold front that moved in today stalsl offshore tonight as a weak area of low pressure tries to form in northern Florida tomorrow. Read more
As you may or may not know by now The Weather Channel has decided to give certain winter storms a name. They made the decision over a month ago too much fanfare and equal amounts of controversy. You can read their reasoning and methodology right here.
Only a week removed from my annual winter forecast for the Carolinas and I’m seeing the pattern that I expected starting to unfold. Only problem is it might be unfolding quicker and longer than even I expected. What might be lost in the devastation of Sandy is that it’s wasn’t just a hurricane. The other side of Sandy; the cold, wintry and nor’easter side of the storm was vitally important to what happened. Meteorologically if you took Sandy our of the picture completely the east coast still would have been hit by a massive and powerful Nor’easter Sandy just supercharged the nor’easter to make it a hybrid monster storm.
The impacts of Sandy are about to really be felt across the North Carolina Mountains starting tonight through Wednesday. Today is the time to prepare for damaging winds and heavy snowfall that combined will cause major tree and power line damage. The time line on all of this is starting tonight and ramping up Monday with the worst occurring Monday night through Tuesday night. Here’s a look at the possibilities as things unfold tonight into early this week. Video Discussion below…
It’s that time of year again for my annual winter forecast for the Southeast. Over the past 8 years I have had my ups and downs in my winter forecasting. Seasonal forecasting is very difficult and I learned a valuable lesson in that last year with a horrible miss. The combination of a strong La Nina and positive NAO all winter gave us one of the warmest winters in years across the Carolinas. That miss last year put by record at 5-3 in my winter forecasts.
This year is proving to be just a tough as EL Nino is fading and the amount of warming over parts of the artic due to sea ice loss is added to the difficulty in this years forecast. So lets start with a few of the parameters I’m looking at.