The severe weather threat for Wednesday is slightly increasing based on the latest guidance I’m analyzing tonight. The current trends in the radar and satellite clearly shows wherever this potent low goes, so does the severe weather threat.
The thing that really has me watching this even closer is that tonight’s high resolution NAM4 came in with high shear and higher CAPE. CAPE is the fuel that thunderstorms need to grow and tap into the wind shear that is available in the atmosphere. The key to all this is going to be the amount of recovery of the atmosphere from the morning clouds and showers. These clouds and showers could help keep this CAPE down and reduce the severe threat. The key here is we don’t want any sunshine or even thinning of the cloud deck tomorrow afternoon. Even if this happens just for a few hour……watch out!
Below is the model output from the NAM4 at 6pm Wednesday evening.