The stalled front to our north is going to try and slide a bit south tomorrow and Saturday bringing the risk for some strong to severe storms. These will be very widely scattered storms and I wouldn’t be changing my outdoors plans. The chances of thunderstorms will be mainly in the mountains/foothills Friday and area wide Saturday. Those chances will remain in the 30-40% chance. Here’s a look at the severe thunderstorm risk the next 2 days.
Here’s what 2 of the short term models depict tomorrow evening, not very impressive. I tend to be more optimistic in my forecast right now. I just don’t see a lot of rain unless I see some significant movement of the front south.
8pm HRW Model 8pm NAM Model
Now there will be plenty of heat and humidity building south of the frontal boundary Friday and Saturday. So instability won’t be a huge issue it’s the trigger that maybe missing which is the front. So if indeed the front sags as far south as the Virginia border then we could see some strong storms both days, time will tell and I’ll be watching that front the next 2 days for you. Here’s where it is now.