The set-up for Thursday is more and more looking like a high threat of strong storms along with flash flooding. The severe threat is conditional on how much instability we will see or heating. The Flood threat seems to be much more likely at this point.
The set-up here is from 2 waves of low pressure along a slow-moving cold front. Which gives us the typically high shear and low CAPE set-up we get often in the Carolinas. Meaning if we can get enough heating or instability the threat for severe thunderstorms with strong winds and even a tornado is possible.
This is the NAM 4 future radar from late Tuesday through Friday morning at 8am.
The amount of cloud cover and rainfall might save us from that severe threat, but it’s a real concern Thursday especially late in the day.
This threat looks much higher as deep tropical moisture will be moving along the slow-moving front. The precipitable water will be close to 2” on Thursday, Which means the rain will be falling fast and furious. I expect a flash flood watch to be issued sometime later today for Thursday.
The slow-moving front and low-level moisture all paints a period of tremendous rainfall potential. Flash flooding with rapid rainfall rates seems like a high likelihood depending on where the heavier bands set up.
This is just a heads up for the severe and flood potential right now. The highest threat though is the flask flooding threat by far. So if you live in a flood prone areas or drive through such an area no is the time to start thinking bout your plan in case there is a flood.
Remember never drive into flooded roadways and stay alert for changing forecast and weather conditions.