Sunday update on Tropical Storm Irene


Hurricane hunters are out in Irene right now to find how much the center has re-located to the north overnight. Looks to me that the center is at least 60 miles further north than the previous track. This was mainly due to reconthe the center being tugged north by the deep thunderstorm activity to the north. Once the center has stabilized we should continue to see the storm steered to the west at around 18-20 mph. The result in the relocation north has shifted all the model guidance north. This is not a change is any steering pattern just the change in where the storm was located. There is still a 60% probability I believe that Irene will go through a rapid intensification cycle prior to interaction with Hispaniola. This could happen as soon at this evening when the storm wraps up and gets rid of the dry air on it’s west side. All interests in Florida especially need to be getting there hurricane action plans in preparation for when a watch or warning is issued. The Carolinas and the Gulf Coast also needs to be ready.  Any shift in the track will have huge ramifications on the impacts there.

Current Track Forecast (updates automatically)


Spaghetti Model plots for Irene


tracks 2

Here’s a loop of the RPM model we run at WCNC of the surface wind speeds.

This will be a huge regardless of wind speeds, take a look at rainfall forecasted just over the next 2 days.