@pinknosebunny nothing reporter.
Thursday night into Friday morning a perfect set-up for freezing rain will develop for parts of the western Carolinas. An area of cold dry high pressure will “wedge” itself up against the mountains starting Thursday evening. This typical cold air damming event is when dry cold air gets trapped east of the mountains here in the Carolinas.
Cold dry high pressure has wedged itself up against the mountains this evening. While at the same time a mid-level disturbance is moving along the Northern Gulf Coast states. This disturbance will provide just enough moisture to ride up and over the cold and very dry air mass in place over the piedmont & foothills of North Carolina late tonight & early Monday morning.
Last winter was our second straight winter with well below temperatures and slightly above average snowfall in the Charlotte region. We had 6.1” of snow and the temperatures were the coldest since the late 1970s. This was highlighted by the first white Christmas in charlotte in 63 years.
This upcoming weekend is going to be one for good books, good movies and good coffee. Cold high pressure to our north will wedge a dry and cold air mass up against the mountains. While this is going on a low pressure system will approach from the west spreading moisture up and over this cold dome of air. The results will be cloudy, cold and wet conditions just about all weekend long. Though for one area up against the Blue Ridge Mountains there could be some wintry weather in the form of ice. The HPC shows the probabilities of ice and the amount of rain/precipitation that will fall
Precipitation Forecast NAM Model Precip Type Sunday morning
This is a look at the NAM model sounding from the Bufkit. Lets hope that this model doesn’t verify because those red bars are hours of freezing rain and over 1.00” of it.
So here is what I’m thinking if that cold dry air get trapped up against the Blue Ridge and in some of the high mountain valleys. You combine that with the mechanically cooling due to lifting the moist air into the eastern upslope areas of the mountains. It will produce a mix of rain and freezing rain. I don’t expect major issues right now but if the trends stay cold and dry in Ashe and Watauga we could have some ice issues Sunday. Stay Tuned!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
…DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ICE TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA…
.PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT…LIKELY
STARTING OUT AS A SLEET AND RAIN MIX. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
QUICKLY ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
OR BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS…AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP…WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CLAYTON…NEWLAND…STATESVILLE…
322 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011
…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
* LOCATIONS…NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS…MUCH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS…THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
* HAZARDS…FREEZING RAIN COATING TREES AND POWER LINES AND
CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* TIMING…PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS EVENING…AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS…TRACE AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER…LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL SEE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
COULD SEE AS MUCH AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* IMPACTS…SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS…ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES COULD LEAD TO
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
* TEMPERATURES…LOWERING TO FREEZING ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS
LATE TONIGHT…GRADUALLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY.
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.