Thursday looks like all snow, just not a lot of it

Latest data keeps pouring in and really my thinking has changed little since late last week. We are going to see some snow Thursday morning, just not a large amount. There is one thing that will make this a tough forecast as there will be a whole bunch of snow to our west today and tomorrow as the storm approaches. The Carolinas will be playing chicken with this storm as it barrels towards us. I’m counting on a shift or jump in the main energy of the storm from the Gulf of Mexico low pressure center to a Carolina coastal low. This will should keep our snow totals down as the best lift and moisture “jumps” over the piedmont to the coast. Here’s why I think that and how much snow we might see. This is still a big if.

 

The NAM model clearly has a shift in energy but still brings a swath of 1-2” of snow to areas south and east of Charlotte. Notice the 2 lows, #1 in the Gulf of Mexico & #2 off the Carolina coast.

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The model soundings all point to solid snow with a 14:1 liquid to snow ratio.

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Our in house model the Furtutrecast(RPM) seems to be over doing the amounts due to some mesoscale banding. While I haven’t put a lot of credence in this solution it’s something to watch for and this might illustrate the high end of what could happen. There’s always two ways to blow a snowfall forecast. Most people only think of nothing happened being a blown snowfall forecast but getting more snow than forecasted has equal chances of happening too.

mgWeb_WRF_20110208-120000_ASE_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterSnow_R12km

Here’s what I am actually going with; 1-2” of a fluffy light snow mainly falling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Plus with low temperatures down into the upper 20s Wednesday night. We we could see some slick roads for the Thursday morning commute. Right now expect a Winter Weather Advisory issued for the entire region. There could be a few areas put under a Winter Storm Watch but that criteria is 3” in 12 hours. Remember you can check what the different winter weather watches and warnings mean from a previous post.

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Stay tuned starting today at 4,5,5:30 & 6pm on

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  • Hi Brad

    I’m on the western slope in Watauga County near the TN. line at 4000′ elev. It looks like we are right on the line for the 4-6″ range. Do you think our chances for 2-4″ is better and will elevation make any difference?

    Thanks again
    Lee

    • wxbrad

      Lee, elevation will only have a minor role in this storm. It’s really going to be more about the lift & energy and when that begins to shift to the coast. It’s like the high amounts could be south and west of your location with this one.

  • josh

    So Will Union County Get More Than Meck This Time? What about the school closings? Will 1-2″ Be enough for those back roads?

    • wxbrad

      That’s a possibility but the amount will still be around 1-2″ with 2″ in Union and 1″-1.5″ in Mecklenburg.

  • ahh ok… Could there be more with a slight shift?

    • wxbrad

      The only way this become more would be a slower moving storm that doesn’t shift the energy to coast until it’s past us.

      • eeek… how much of a possibility would you put this at? Thanks btw for this great Weather Blog and Source for info!

        • wxbrad

          There’s about a 20% chance of that happening