Latest data keeps pouring in and really my thinking has changed little since late last week. We are going to see some snow Thursday morning, just not a large amount. There is one thing that will make this a tough forecast as there will be a whole bunch of snow to our west today and tomorrow as the storm approaches. The Carolinas will be playing chicken with this storm as it barrels towards us. I’m counting on a shift or jump in the main energy of the storm from the Gulf of Mexico low pressure center to a Carolina coastal low. This will should keep our snow totals down as the best lift and moisture “jumps” over the piedmont to the coast. Here’s why I think that and how much snow we might see. This is still a big if.
The NAM model clearly has a shift in energy but still brings a swath of 1-2” of snow to areas south and east of Charlotte. Notice the 2 lows, #1 in the Gulf of Mexico & #2 off the Carolina coast.
The model soundings all point to solid snow with a 14:1 liquid to snow ratio.
Our in house model the Furtutrecast(RPM) seems to be over doing the amounts due to some mesoscale banding. While I haven’t put a lot of credence in this solution it’s something to watch for and this might illustrate the high end of what could happen. There’s always two ways to blow a snowfall forecast. Most people only think of nothing happened being a blown snowfall forecast but getting more snow than forecasted has equal chances of happening too.
Here’s what I am actually going with; 1-2” of a fluffy light snow mainly falling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Plus with low temperatures down into the upper 20s Wednesday night. We we could see some slick roads for the Thursday morning commute. Right now expect a Winter Weather Advisory issued for the entire region. There could be a few areas put under a Winter Storm Watch but that criteria is 3” in 12 hours. Remember you can check what the different winter weather watches and warnings mean from a previous post.
Stay tuned starting today at 4,5,5:30 & 6pm on