Tropical Depression #18


Tropical Depression #18 has formed in the western Caribbean. Whenever you get these October storms they tend to do some odd things compared to the rest of the season. The water is still very warm down in the southern Gulf and Caribbean this time of the year. The one thing that does change though is there is more shear along with cold fronts every 2-3 days moving quickly across the U.S. These westerlies are quite strong now and usually keep storms away from the Gulf Coast. Except Florida where the Northeast moving storm tracks are common in the month of October. In fact when you look at the model tracks and climatology you’ll see similar paths.

It appears likely that this will become a tropical storm as soon as Monday. It will then be named Rina ( REE-nuh) making it the 17th named storm of the 1011 Atlantic Hurricane season

October Storm Climatology


Model Tracks for TD # 18


Intensity Forecasts


Details HRW and FGDL Models