As if this Spring hasn’t been active enough with severe weather this week might be the straw that breaks the back of many communities. We will see all the elements that Spring severe weather can bring to the table including Tornadoes, Lightning, Straight line winds, Hail and the most widespread of them all flooding. The reason? There’s a stalled frontal system that stretches from Texas to New England that has brought days of rain and severer weather to the Mississippi & Ohio river valleys. This we will get upper level support to spawn lots of severe weather even heavier rainfall. This system will slowly begin to move east as well spreading the severe weather our way.
Surface Features 5-Day rainfall (which is likely underdone here)
The combination of this stalled frontal system and a deep and plenty inflow of moisture from the gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will keep severe storms possible both Tuesday, Wednesday and even possibly Thursday morning for the Carolina. Here’s a look at the outlooks from SPC (Storm Prediction Center). Which by the way for the first time I can remember actually has a moderate risk in the Day 1,2 & 3 outlooks.
Here’s a look at a few of the models for when we might see our rounds of severe weather. Tuesday looks like scattered severe storms but then Wednesday looks much more organized. Especially late Wednesday night into Thursday.
5:00 pm Tuesday 8:00pm Wednesday
2:00 am Thursday
The fly in the ointment and something the models maybe missing is the left overs of tropical disturbance 91L. This disturbance could add shear, moisture and lift to create even more widespread severe weather depending on it’s track. something I’ll be watching closely.