Very Early Look at Sunday’s Storm.

It’s way early and I’d probably not even blog about this so soon…but. I have seen 2 runs of the reliable long range EURO model and a few runs of the GFS along with Canadian model. All of which are in somewhat agreement(rare) which makes me want to dig a little deeper. The fact that the EURO model started picking up on this storm first makes me take it a even tad more serious than if the GFS developed another “phantom” storm.

Also worth noting is the fact that both the pattern and track this low takes is a more ideal track for a winter storm in the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, so it does bear watching more closely. Plus honestly it’s nice for the first time this winter to have some legitimate reason to watch a storm and use some winter weather forecasting skills. Smile Lets take a look at the model data for Sunday on the various models.

ecmwf_apcp_f132_us

can_apcp_f138_us

gfs_op_apcp_f126_us

2012-02-14_1135

ECMWF:

This model has done the best this winter..again, so lets take a closer look. It shows a track very close to the coast even slightly inland which brings the warm air inland as well. This means big snows for the foothills and mountains. Any slight deviation could bring the heavier snows down into the piedmont. Central Virginian gets hammered in this scenario.

6 hour Snowfall from the ECMWF starting 4am Sunday:

2012-02-14_11062012-02-14_1106_001

2012-02-14_1106_0022012-02-14_1107

Analogs:

This a very cool technique that I have used over the last several winters. This takes the current model data and looks back at history, to see what happened with a similar set-up in the atmosphere. The one drawback is it uses the current GFS data but at least you get an idea of the scenarios based on similar storm position, strength and track.

So based on the GFS here’s what the forecasted snowfall would be based on these analog storms. The #1 analog storm was from February 12-13, 2010.

Analog Snowfall Forecast:

COOPmean15gfs212F120

Analog Chances of 4” of snow:

COOP4perc15gfs212F120

Analog Chances of 2” of snowfall:

COOP2perc15gfs212F120

Brad’s Bottom Line:

It’s early….but the position of the storms the track and pattern all point to someone on the east coast getting some good snow. I’d put the chances of accumulating snow east of the mountains at around 30% right now. The mountains will get maybe the biggest storms of the season so far. Which could not have come at a better time. This is Presidents Day weekend a huge ski weekend and the conditions should be perfect. Just stay tuned as always and remember a lot can change by the weekend because the track is so close any small changes will have big impacts on the outcome.

  • wxbrad

    Updates data today shows this storm is looking like all rain except for the mountains where we could see a wintry mix. Still watching closely though.

  • rrf

    Good lord, it’s Wed. They can barely predict the sun coming up in the EAST, let alone a storm 4 days out…

    • wxbrad

      Who’s they?