Watching the tropics this weekend

Long range weather models have for the past few days been hinting at possible tropical development in and around Florida. They vary greatly on where this will happen. Even though just about all the operational models have something forming.

Right now none of them make this into a strong system but interaction with high pressure over the Northeast and an approaching mid-latitude low pressure system could make the wind field quite large. There is also a silver lining that this will help drought conditions here in the southeast.

The impacts here in the Carolinas will depend on which side of Florida it eventually ends up forming on. Either way after a very long dry spell much needed rain will arrive Monday into Tuesday next week. It seems like every year there is one last threat to the U.S. in the month of October.



GFS Model


Canadian Model


Drought status here in the Southeast