Weak Sub-Tropical Storm Possible on the Carolina Coast.

I’ve been watching this low for a few days now and last night it really got it’s act together. There is a tight low level circulation but it’s mainly a cold core system. Meaning it’s not truly a tropical storm but likely a hybrid storm or even a sub-tropical depression. Check the radar and satellite loop below.



The hurricane center only gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical storm. It really doesn’t matter to those on the coast. The impacts will be that of a Nor’easter or a weak tropical storm. High surf, windy conditions and bands of heavy rain along the NC and SC coasts through early next week. This will be something to watch over the next few days as it will likely meander across the Carolina coasts and could eventually being rain back our way Monday or Tuesday.Below is the early track and intensity forecasts.

Forecast Tracks:


Intensity forecast:


NAM 4 model:


5-19-2012 9-54-30 AM