4th High Risk Day of 2011

For the 4th time this year the Storm Prediction center has placed a “High Risk” for severe storms across parts of the U.S. This is the closest you get to anyone forecasting a 100% chance for a tornado.

The 3 other times this has happened were the following. Via (weather.com)

Apr. 16: "Carolina Outbreak" (69 tornadoes…32 in NC…13 in VA…26 killed)
Apr. 26: "Mid-South Outbreak" (56 tornadoes….1 killed in AR)
Apr. 27: "Southeast Outbreak" (232 tornadoes…315 killed)

Here’s the Outlooks from SPC for Today

The set-up is text book for supercell thunderstorms with large long track tornadoes. There also will be very large hail likely 3” diameter or larger. The main kicker in this system will be a strong jet streak and 500 mb vort max swinging in from the west this afternoon. Combine that with 90° heat and dew points in the low to mid-70s, you have the perfect storm for tornadoes. Like the previous 3 times this set-up has occurred it has been very well forecasted and should not be s surprise to residents in the threat area that tornadoes are on the way. Please take all warnings deadly serious.