Arctic Blast on the way this week.

Enjoy the mild air today because we won’t be seeing temperatures like this for some time. The 1st real cold air of the year arrives in 2 waves this week. The 1st wave starts overnight tonight into Monday but pales in comparison to the late week cold air. The late week cold air is being driven by what could be a record-setting Arctic high-pressure system moving into the northern plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF model forecast a high-pressure center with a sea level surface pressure around 1058 to 1060 mb. This would be a record setter for some areas of the Plains.

Here’s a look at the All-Time Record Sea level pressures reading via HPC:

By Thursday, the heart of this arctic high will be centered over the Southeast. Surface pressures here are forecast to be around 1045 mb. This too is close to a record for our area. High pressure can be extremely high in cold arctic air like this due to its very high density. This literally means there is more air pushing down on us leading to higher pressure readings. If you are prone to migraines or headaches this might trigger a few. As high pressure like this constricts the capillaries slightly, especially in your head

Thursday morning lows and highs based on the GFS model:

 Wind:

On top of the very cold air, there will be some wind with the second surge of cold air Thursday morning. This would bring us some dangerous wind chills. Wednesday night into Thursday Windchill could be below zero even across the Piedmont but especially the mountains.

 The Forecast:

So based on the pattern here is what I’m going with for our forecast. Shocking enough these are not even records. This week is the statistically the coldest time of the year in Charlotte. When our average high is just 50° the lowest all year. The morning low average is 29° which is also the lowest it gets all year. So in reality this cold while extreme is pretty much right on schedule for Charlotte.

What about the S— word?

Right now, there is no moisture with any of this. Which is typical for arctic air it will have extreme low dew-point below zero. Once this cold air is established then we watch the storm track for late this upcoming weekend into next week. If we are going to see any wintry precipitation then this is the time frame to watch. But it’s still ways out there so stay tuned!