False Start To Spring Again

So allegedly Spring begins when the Vernal Equinox occurs on Thursday at 12:57 pm. While this is strictly the astronomical start to Spring and Meteorological Spring started on March 1st. Both of these dates seem totally irrelevant this year.

Even though we will experience a nice warm-up Thursday into Saturday it’s a false start to Spring yet again. A possible record-breaking blast of Arctic Air will move into the eastern U.S. starting early next week and peaking around mid-week.

Temperatures:

The GFS Model has some ridiculously cold air for this time of the year by Wednesday. Check out the departure from average and the possible high temperatures next Wednesday. Remember the average high for next Wednesday is 66° in Charlotte, NC.

The ECMWF model is even worst but I should note here that this model has a had a known cold bias in the low-level temperatures almost of this winter. Still it’s cold and pretty close to what the GFS has.

Winter Storm Chances?:

Despite the rumors there really isn’t anything concrete in the model guidance right now. The GFS has been the most aggressive but also the least consistent. The ECMWF has had almost nothing though a few members of the ECMWF ensembles have some wintry weather.

While a winter storm this time of year is not unheard of it takes an almost perfect set-up and snow chances seem minimal right now. What is more likely is another threat like the last 2 storms. Which would be an ice threat. Shallow cold air this time of year with a cold air wedge is much more likely.

Stay tuned and hold on we have 6-10 more days of this stuff.