NOAA updates their Hurricane Season forecast, I’m sticking with mine.
From NOAA….
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):
- 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.
This was their previous forecast back in May
- 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
My thinking…….
In my opinion too much weight is being given to the impacts of the La Nina which is still just beginning. Sahara dust and high wind shear still plagues development in the Atlantic even with very warm SST. Alex was the only legitimate named storm this season. Even as recent as 5-10 years ago Bonnie and Colin would have likely never been given a name. These type of marginal storms get names all the time elevating the number of named storms in the Atlantic.
My forecast is still for…
13 Named storms
8 Hurricanes
4 major storms
