Severe Weather Potential Saturday

Well things are finally warming up around here and as that happens wouldn’t you know it the chance for some strong storms moves in. Now the timing of the cold front might work in our favor to reduce the chances but it’s close enough to start thinking about Saturdays threat.

Severe Storm Outlooks from SPC:

You can tell we will have ongoing strong storm likely to our southwest Friday and they will be weakening as they approach the western Carolinas by daybreak Saturday.

Set-up:

There will be warm temperatures around even early Saturday morning with plenty of moisture from the Gulf. The only real question will be instability or the amount of heating to get strong updrafts going. The better chances will be in the afternoon as the atmosphere recovers from morning rain and clouds. This is the biggest question right now. How much do we actually recover and does the worst stay east? Then by then will the front already be east of the Charlotte area?

Clearly if we do get some sunshine by 2-5pm there will be enough CAPE to fuel some decent  thunderstorms. If we see any sunshine the CAPE could be even higher than even indicated below.

Shear:

The shear isn’t off the charts but if a pocket of higher CAPE and higher shear can line up some of the storms could be strong to severe. The main concern here would be for straight line winds. The worst upper energy and dynamics will be weakening with time which would further diminish the threat. Just too close of a call right now.

Future Radar:

Nothing jumps off the Future radar right now except for what appears to be a meso-low to the South. Whereever that thing goes there could be enhanced severe weather. Last night it appeared it might track right over us but this morning it has shifted back South. Either way it’s something to watch.

This is certainly not a huge threat and we will see much bigger threats this spring. With it being the weekend and with finally some warm weather. Please make sure to stay weather aware when out and about Saturday especially if you have outdoor plans.

Brad