Severe weather threat going up this afternoon for the Carolinas
Here we go the atmosphere is getting primed for the severe weather this afternoon. With the skies clearing and plenty of moisture the instability is going through the roof fast. The storm prediction center has already put out a mesoscale discussion contemplating putting a watch out very soon stay tuned looks like 4-5 pm target time for Charlotte.
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NC...SC AND FAR ERN GA AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN GA...SC AND PARTS OF SRN NC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SC AND WRN NC AND EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NRN SC. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SFC-BASED STORMS WILL INITIATE BY 18Z ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SFC TROUGH. IN ADDITION...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ALSO RAPIDLY STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AND BETTER ORGANIZED SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS.
