Tropical Depression #18

 

Tropical Depression #18 has formed in the western Caribbean. Whenever you get these October storms they tend to do some odd things compared to the rest of the season. The water is still very warm down in the southern Gulf and Caribbean this time of the year. The one thing that does change though is there is more shear along with cold fronts every 2-3 days moving quickly across the U.S. These westerlies are quite strong now and usually keep storms away from the Gulf Coast. Except Florida where the Northeast moving storm tracks are common in the month of October. In fact when you look at the model tracks and climatology you’ll see similar paths.

It appears likely that this will become a tropical storm as soon as Monday. It will then be named Rina ( REE-nuh) making it the 17th named storm of the 1011 Atlantic Hurricane season

October Storm Climatology

october

Model Tracks for TD # 18

aal96_2011102318_track_early

Intensity Forecasts

aal96_2011102318_intensity_early

Details HRW and FGDL Models

eighteen18l.2011102318_nesteighteen18l.2011102318_nest3