Tuesday Morning Update: Plus Looking Ahead

Looking at Tuesday morning this event should be all light rain with some sleet pellets early. Not a big deal at all as the energy moves north and the system fall apart as it moves over us. Right now this would qualify as a zero on the snow meter.

Tuesday Morning Model Runs 7am:

      HRW                                                                            NAM4

RPM Model 7:00am:

Looking ahead:

The pattern stays very active for the next couple of weeks. For the first time all season we have cold air close enough and an active southern storm track that means with the right timing winter weather could happen. While its fun to look at the real long range of the GFS model over the next 2 weeks. The skill in forecasting that far out is very small. So I look for trends long range and more specifics within 7-10 days given the right model. That one model is the ECMWF or European model. One such storm has my attention this weekend. I will stress this is still early. Right now it shows mainly rain but the track of the low and position of the cold air means subtle changes could mean something more than what’s there right now.

This is a look at Saturday night into Sunday on the ECMWF model. Something to watch in future runs of all the models. Especially since the air mass is cool and there will be some snow on the ground finally over the mid-west. This snow cover even small can help keep air masses cooler.

ECMWF Snowfall forecast for next Sunday: