Minus the usual difficulties of forecasting winter weather in the Carolinas one model has been very consistent with the snow threat for Tuesday. That model has also performed the best this winter season even when yours truly doubted the data it was spewing. That model is the GFS which usually has QPF issues or precipitation over forecasting issues. I would usually use the NAM as we get closer for the thermal structure of the atmosphere and will likely do this again, but I’d be foolish to not look closely at the GFS

Just to show you how the model has performed with this storm take the Bufkit data from the model for Charlotte.

GFS 12Z Friday Feb. 26, 2010

GFS Monday morning Mar. 1, 2010

These model runs are almost 72 hours apart and there is little change in the output. This can either mean it’s out to lunch or on to something. This also doesn’t mean we are going to get 6-7” of snow in Charlotte because models are guidance not forecasts. There is a chance with some rain mixing in and the track of the low keeping the totals down in the 2-3” range with some areas around 4” . I would be remiss not to go with consistently and at least let you know of what might happen on the high end because we all know what will happen on the low end of a missed forecast. 🙂 I’ve stay closed to my initial forecast from last Friday of 2-3” and see no reason to change that right now I know there is lots of conflicting information from other sources. This is a case where I like to stay consistent with my forecast unless something obvious or a major shift in the data changes my mind. So as always stay tuned!