Warm & Dry Weather Leads to High Fire Danger
You got to love the change in the weather pattern from cold to mild that has occurred in the past few days. This warmer than average weather will be sticking around too. The problem is our dry pattern that has been with us all winter hasn’t changed, we need rain bad. Even with some rain we are entering what is typically the beginning of fire season #1 in the Carolinas. There are 2 fire seasons around these parts one in the Spring when the combination of warm & windy weather combines with all the dead brush from the winter combine to create high fire danger. The second fire, the #2 season is in the fall when all the leaves fall off the tress and plants start to die off. This combines with mild and windy weather as well. Making problems worse this fire season is the persistent drought that started last fall and has built over the winter. 
Almost the entire piedmont of North Carolina is currently under a severe drought. In the past 12 months we have a rainfall deficit of 11.12” and just over the past three month our deficit is 4.23”.
So things are very dry even by late winter standards. If you’re asking yourself how can we be in a drought when we’ve had so much snow and ice? Lots of snow would have helped but we only got 6.1” so far and using the 10:1 liquid to snow ratio means that 6.1” of snow only equals 0.61” of rainfall. Not nearly enough plus one of the side effects of all that arctic air we had this winter is that’s it’s also very dry in nature. Dewpoints many times this winter have been in the single digits and teens.
Today will be kind of a perfect storm for wild fires as temperatures climb into the mid and upper 60s. The difference or spread between the dew point and air temperature will become very high today. Thus reducing the relative humidity to levels well below 25%. Combine that will an approaching dry cold front which will produce southwest winds of 20-30mph at times with higher gusts around 40 mph. You end up with critical fire danger levels. 
Our Futurecast model produces what is called the Fire Weather Index this takes into account humidity levels, wind. Most areas are in the 3-6 range on the 0-10 scale.
The Fuel moisture from the Forest service over the Carolinas is in the 5-6% range, very low and it wouldn’t take much to get a fire started.
The net result is not only can fires start very easily today they can spread very fast. This combination has prompted the Red Flag Warning which is just another way to say High Fire Danger Warning. Please be very careful with any ignition sources outside today and if you see smoke or a fire report it immediately.
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 217 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011 ...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY... .A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES...VERY DRY AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH DRY BRUSH AND OTHER FUELS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-303-501>510- 150200- /O.UPG.KGSP.FW.A.0001.110214T1500Z-110215T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0001.110214T1500Z-110215T0200Z/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN- HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- 217 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGHOUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD FOR THE THREAT OF SPREADING WILDFIRES WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. * WINDS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST...15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. * HUMIDITY...15 TO 25 PERCENT. * FUEL MOISTURE...LOW FUEL MOISTURE...WITH 10 HOUR VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. * IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
