Hot pattern setting up early as we enter summer.

So far, May has certainly been off to a warm start. Charlotte is already running about 4° above average just 13 days into the month. Even though we get a brief break from the really hot stuff the rest of this week. There are signs the heat will be coming back and sticking around for the rest of the month. 

We have also hit our 1st 90° day of the year about 2 weeks earlier than average and almost a full month earlier than last year.

GFS Ensemble mean temperature anomalies:

One look at the 5-day forecast of departure from average temperatures tells you the Carolinas are in for some heat. During this whole period which covers the next 16 days, the temperatures remain above average after this brief cool down this week.

16-day ensemble mean forecast for Charlotte:

Minus the “cool” down this week, 90° looks to be a hovering point over the next 2 weeks.

Heat for us but maybe Rain for California:

Our heat might be good news for California and the drought-stricken west coast. The east coast ridge is countered with a pretty nice west coast trough which should bring rain chances to California.

Climate prediction center shows the heat in their 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts:

What about precipitation?

This is a little tough to nail down because you never quite know how the afternoon thunderstorm pattern will set up. Clearly it looks like Texas will be getting hammered again with loads of rain with them being sandwiched between the west coast trough and east coast ridge. I don’t like the chances for widespread rain unless the MCS track sets up early and we get some action there. This could help start a long hot and dry summer in the Carolinas.