Low pressure near the coast this weekend

There still isn’t a lot more to update on the possible development of low pressure off the coast. While it is likely going to get wet especially along the coast starting late Sunday into early next week. There is still a fairly low chance that it becomes a tropical or subtropical storm.

This will not have a major impact as far as wind or surge; it’s really just more a question of how much rain it produces. Water temperatures and conditions are only slightly favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center puts those chances at just 30% over the next 5 days.

Model Updates:

As far as impacts on Sunday for the Coke 600 here in Charlotte. I am finding it hard to imagine anything more than a 30-40% chance of scattered thunderstorms and most of those to our east. The GFS model is an outlier though right now with the amount of rain and timing bringing the system right up I-26 Sunday night. Which would mean lots of rain Sunday evening. All other guidance and their ensembles are much slower and further South with the system. I should note too all guidance keeps this system very weak, barely a depression if even that.

Weak systems and weak steering currents usually mean lots of uncertainty. I think the slower and weaker solution makes more sense based on the current pattern.

Don’t change your beach plans right now:

This is not going to be a change your plans for the beach kind of storm. More so of a nuisance system that means higher chances of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms especially Sunday into Monday.  If you are going to the coast for the holiday weekend, just pay attention to the weather and get frequent updates. I’d also have some plans to do some indoor activities if the rain shortens beach time late this weekend.