Storm Chances Small But Mighty This Evening

The squall line that looked like it was out of a horror movie last night died out and weakened as I expected this morning when it approached the mountains. Even though it made me second guess myself a tad last night, I never like playing chicken with these types of squall lines even in the face of sound meteorology.                      

                  Last Night                                        Noon Today

Even though it weakened it did leave behind 2 MCV’s or mesoscale convective vortex. They are shown by the arrows above on the right. These combined with some heating caused by clearing skies will likely kick off a few thunderstorms. Not many maybe just 40% coverage if that, but the ones that do form could be strong to severe. The main threat will be sight-line winds. The tornado threat is not zero but only a 1 on our tornado threat scale. (0-10 scale).

When you look at the HRW short range hi-resolution model it does kick-off 2 clusters of storms late this evening into tonight with both of these near the MCV’s. Below is the future radar from the HRW model.

                        11pm tonight                                        2am Thursday morning

The threat for severe weather is still small but any isolated cells that can get going need to be watched.

Severe weather threats via SPC.