• Jesse Ferrell

    Excellent post.

    ALSO: Investment (stock) gurus (who ARE predicting the future) have an accuracy rate of 22%-68%, avg. 47% http://ow.ly/x1g5U

  • Josh Herman

    I see it differently. When does the weather forecast really matter? When weather will actually impact the area. Take precipitation for example, that seems to carry an impact. Charlotte averages 69 days (00-13) with pcpn > 0.10″ a year. Lets assume of the 26 days that are remembered as busts per year, there was actual weather (pcpn) affecting the area. Instead of the gaudy 6% bust ratio, it’s a more realistic 37% bust ratio. LOL.

    • wxbrad

      Couple of wrong assumptions there Josh, the busted forecast number accounts for temperature and precipitations busts. Not all 6% of our busts were predication busts almost 60% were temperature busts. Which especially in the winter and the growing season have even larger impacts than ;precipitation. With freezing temperature forecasts being very impactful to travel and crops.

      • Josh Herman

        How many days a year is there impacting weather in your area. Those are the days that should be calculated with your bust ratio, not an entire calendar year. Your numbers are inflated. :)

        • wxbrad

          Impactfull is just too subjective, virtually every type of weather is impactful to certain segments of the population. The numbers speak for themselves IMO. We get blamed for a wrong forecast even when they are right because if it rains on someones event. then they think its wrong, even if we forecast it. People perceive that as wrong. We sometimes bust even when people don’t notice an think we got it right. Like when it rains in the middle of the night when no one notices and we didn’t forecast it. Sometimes we forecast 85° and it only hits 81° people don’t notice, but it still goes down as a bust. In the end we actually do really well on the extreme events because they are easier to forecast. The marginal events are the tough ones, wedge events during the cool season and isolated thunderstorms in the summer.

          • Josh Herman
          • wxbrad

            Thank you, yeah most of those forecasts are model derived only which is something I wanted to add to my post. Just to show how quality control of a human forecaster can improve the forecast from just sticky model driven forecast.

          • Josh Herman

            Another reason to stick with local Mets when an accurate forecast is desired.

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  • Jim

    “Over the past 4 years our 24 hour forecast for the next day has been right 94% of the time.” Just curious, who is “our” in this statement? Also, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts about the accuracy (and usefulness) of detailed 30 – 45 day forecasts. Thank you.

  • Dave

    Brad, thank you for all the extra things you do. You should not have to explain yourself to anyone. People should remember this, a meteorologist does not control the weather, they predict what the weather. A meteorologist cannot predict to the exact mile where a low pressure system will track, but predict a general vicinity. Although I was disappointed by the amount of snow we got, or the lack thereof, I cannot blame that on someone who is going out of their way to keep us all informed; and who has zero control on the weather itself. Thank you again for keeping us all informed on the weather.

  • Scott

    Well said!

  • Carrie

    Some more perspective for you, or a “you’re not alone” comment. The vast majority of police officers are not racist or given to excessive brutality, but what has dominated the media for the past 6 months? The vast majority of homeschoolers are effectively, compassionately and responsibly educating their children, but who ever talks about that? And meteorologists forecast the weather accurately 90% of the time, but no one comments on those forecasts. Bottom line, failures of the minority make more waves. But those of us in the majority just have to keep on faithfully working and know the truth about what we do. You’re not alone.

  • James Urban

    I know of a local TV Meteorologist that precedes each of his weather segments with the words “Accurate” & “Trusted”. By the strict definition of the the word, ACCURATE means “without error”. He is rarely correct when it comes to the high or low temperature in the next 24 hours.. When I confronted him online regarding his claim and results, he indicates that what is meant is that he is the “most accurate” of the local TV meteorologists. When I asked him to show independent proof of that claim, he conveniently ignores the question. His exact words to me is, “I know in my heart of hearts that I am the most accurate.” I told him you are just trying to gain viewership through a false claim. Now another local TV meteorologist/forecaster is claiming to have the most accurate weather forecast. Both can not be the most accurate. It bothers me because both of these people are supposed to be professionals and they lack any semblance of credibility.

    • Rob Haswell

      Actually James…

      Merriam Webster defines accurate in three ways. You are accurate about one.

      2: conforming exactly to truth or to a standard
      3: able to give an accurate result

      Both would be appropriate when talking about meteorology. All meteorologist (TV or otherwise) conform to a standard of practice.. thus accurate. All good meteorologist are able to give an accurate result with the proper tools and data… thus accurate.

      So it seems to me that by only using one of the three definitions, you comment itself is only 33% accurate.


    • rick

      If when you predict a tornado your only right 25% of the time and when a tornado happens its only predicted 70% of the time. You are actually only right about 14% of the time. You can twist numbers any way you like but a quarter with a 14% completion percentage isn’t good and he doesn’t get to keep his job

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