• Jesse Ferrell

    Excellent post.

    ALSO: Investment (stock) gurus (who ARE predicting the future) have an accuracy rate of 22%-68%, avg. 47% http://ow.ly/x1g5U

  • Josh Herman

    I see it differently. When does the weather forecast really matter? When weather will actually impact the area. Take precipitation for example, that seems to carry an impact. Charlotte averages 69 days (00-13) with pcpn > 0.10″ a year. Lets assume of the 26 days that are remembered as busts per year, there was actual weather (pcpn) affecting the area. Instead of the gaudy 6% bust ratio, it’s a more realistic 37% bust ratio. LOL.

    • wxbrad

      Couple of wrong assumptions there Josh, the busted forecast number accounts for temperature and precipitations busts. Not all 6% of our busts were predication busts almost 60% were temperature busts. Which especially in the winter and the growing season have even larger impacts than ;precipitation. With freezing temperature forecasts being very impactful to travel and crops.

      • Josh Herman

        How many days a year is there impacting weather in your area. Those are the days that should be calculated with your bust ratio, not an entire calendar year. Your numbers are inflated. :)

        • wxbrad

          Impactfull is just too subjective, virtually every type of weather is impactful to certain segments of the population. The numbers speak for themselves IMO. We get blamed for a wrong forecast even when they are right because if it rains on someones event. then they think its wrong, even if we forecast it. People perceive that as wrong. We sometimes bust even when people don’t notice an think we got it right. Like when it rains in the middle of the night when no one notices and we didn’t forecast it. Sometimes we forecast 85° and it only hits 81° people don’t notice, but it still goes down as a bust. In the end we actually do really well on the extreme events because they are easier to forecast. The marginal events are the tough ones, wedge events during the cool season and isolated thunderstorms in the summer.

          • Josh Herman
          • wxbrad

            Thank you, yeah most of those forecasts are model derived only which is something I wanted to add to my post. Just to show how quality control of a human forecaster can improve the forecast from just sticky model driven forecast.

          • Josh Herman

            Another reason to stick with local Mets when an accurate forecast is desired.

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