From Tropical Weather

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Tropical Storm Erika needs to be watched

Unlike Danny, which was doomed by dry air and shear almost from the get go. Erika’s path is into an area were slow, but steady intensification is likely. If Erika makes it through the dry air and shear of the next 48-72 hrs and gets into the extreme southern Bahamas, then it will be able to intensify much more.  There is still a big “If” that happens. Read more

Marine Forecast

Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks raise awareness but take with a grain of salt.

We are less than a week away from the beginning of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. Now we have all of the seasonal outlooks in hand including the NOAA forecast released today. While I appreciate the attempts at these seasonal outlooks they are pretty much useless for the general public other than to raise awareness for hurricane preparedness. Read more

9-3-2013 12-02-07 PM

We need to change how we look at hurricane season.

Today is September 3rd which is pretty much right in the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season. The peak of the season climatologically is Sept 10th but we are close enough. Most people are wondering why the season has seemed so quiet so far? The answer is complex it’s both part science but also in large part a communication failure of how we focus too much on Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts of named storms. For a long time I have not been a fan of all the mass exposure the seasonal forecasts get. The number of named storms is just a horrible metric of seasonal severity and intensity. The general public does not care how many storms there are in the entire Atlantic they simply care whether or not they will affect them. So 15-20 “fish” storms are irrelevant to the public if none of them impact the U.S. Especially when all the news coverage seems to be about a “bad” hurricane season based on the high number of storms forecasted. The problems arise when people think something is going to happen and it doesn’t they lose their sense of being prepared.  Read more

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Early Thoughts on Chantal

Well as if the wet weather recently wasn’t enough there’s a chance we maybe adding to our misery with a tropical system by the end of this weekend. I am not expecting Chantal to become a strong storm but the tropical moisture that could be moving our way is a huge problem. The same pattern which has soaked us for the past 30 days is the same kind of pattern that will steer Chantal and it’s remnants our way by Sunday into Monday. Read more

10-28-2012 10-21-43 AM

Sandy’s Cold & Snowy Side

The impacts of Sandy are about to really be felt across the North Carolina Mountains starting tonight through Wednesday. Today is the time to prepare for damaging winds and heavy snowfall that combined will cause major tree and power line damage. The time line on all of this is starting tonight and ramping up Monday with the worst occurring Monday night through Tuesday night. Here’s a look at the possibilities as things unfold tonight into early this week. Video Discussion below…

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10-24-2012 9-35-36 AM

Significant Impacts From Sandy on the Coast.

Tropical Storm Sandy may end up causing more issues on the coast than people might imagine. Sometimes we focus too much on the category of a storm or the line track and not all the impacts associated with tropical systems. This would be a prime example here with Sandy. Even though the storm’s center might stay well offshore the impacts on the coast could be large and long-lasting. I can’t stress enough that if you live in the coastal zone be ready for possible flooding. This large storm combined with it’s long duration and a full moon Monday will lead to very high water. Here’s a look at what might happen this weekend into next week. Now is the time to prepare.

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