A large complex of thunderstorms will develop today across the Ohio valley. The complex will make a run at the Carolinas late tonight and early Thursday morning. The real question is will it weaken as it moves in or will it hold together long enough to produce damaging winds?
Set up is there for the complex in the Ohio Valley. The storm prediction center has already indicated that today the threat will be highest in most of Kentucky. With the mid level steering flow pushing the complex from the northwest to the southeast. These large complexes of thunderstorms produce a cool pool of air that can sustain strong storms well into the night. Couple that with a strong low-level flow of warm and humid air called the low-level jet and you get storms that last well into the wee hours of the morning.
500 mb heights & surface dewpoints:
HRRR 12 hour forecast:
The NAM 4 and our Forecast model all show a very healthy line of storms approaching the mountains around 11pm-1am.
Possible Round 2 Thursday evening:
Stay weather aware the next 24 hours especially early Thursday.