The unofficial start of summer in this weekend with Memorial Day weekend. Many will be hitting the Carolina Coast to soak in the sun and take their first dips into the ocean for the season. This weekend the pattern and long range guidance are pointing to some kind of low pressure developing.
This most likely would be Sub-tropical in nature. Subtropical storms are similar to tropical storms but aren’t what we call warm core and the strongest winds are not near the center. They also can form over water that is less than 80° like you need for tropical storms. Think of this as a Nor’easter more than as a tropical storm.
It’s very rare that you have all 3 of the major global models in this type of agreement so far out. Then when you look at the Ensembles you see something is there.
So what does it all mean?
#1 Don’t change your plans this is still 6-7 days out and even in the worst case shown by the models this is a weak system. At worst you have windy and wet weather with high surf. The bigger issue honestly would be rip currents for anyone getting into the water.
#2 Stay tuned to the latest weather update as the weekend gets closer. There could be small changes that lead to significant changes in impacts.
#3 There’s still a chance this stay offshore.