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Winter Storm Potential Going Up: Tuesday-Thursday

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Well the trends are becoming clear we are going to see some kind of a winter storm the question is what type? By type I mean either  ice, snow, sleet or rain and in what combination of 2 or 3? The biggest issue now isn’t if the storm comes but how much of it comes and and in what form. This is a Meteorological headache that a gigantic Excedrin won’t cure! The problem is the potential for large amounts of moisture or QPF over a prolong period of time. It will be flooding into a shallow or deep cold air mass, again this is in question as well. This could all have huge impacts on travel, schools and even power.

Needless to say I don’t have specific amounts but it may not matter because the impacts could be the same. I’m leaning towards a wintry mix of  rain changing to snow on Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Then possibly changing to ice on Wednesday into Thursday. All of that subject to big time changes. Sorry it just is right now

So here’s what I have right now.

The SREF is trending up to almost 2” of snow by 7pm. This is the average or mean of 21 members of the Short range GFS.

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The ECMWF Ensembles are even wetter and colder. With high chances of 3” or more. If you hear or see specifics ECMWF snowfall totals ignore them. The output is all frozen precip and is the combined snow, sleet and freezing rain together with a 10:1 liquid conversion. Basically meaning they are always inflated, but even if you half them it’s a huge amount of frozen precipitation.

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My thinking right now:

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No matter what, be ready for winter weather!

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Where the snow meter is at right now, but it is trending up!

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Stay tuned to wcnc.com NBC Charlotte and my Facebook, Twitter and Google + pages for updates 24hrs a day.

  • Jean Sines

    Brad what do you see for Granite Falls N.C.? So I can be ready ,I live by myself and I am 75 yrs old and I am afraid of loosing my power…then I would freeze to death! .Do I need to buy a kerosene heater or just wait for a update later?

    • wxbrad

      I’d be ready for anything, though where you are it should be less ice and more snow.

    • Kimberly Farmer

      from what I have heard they arent even selling kerosene heaters anymore. i know the walmart around here has already put out spring and summer stuff and all the winter stuff is gone

  • Kathy Bosiak

    argh! do not want Saturday school……………. or delays in soccer…. or no Jamboree on Saturday because the fields are messed up…….

  • tb1181

    when is this suppose to start? I am taking a bus 2/11/14 from Philly to Washington and then Charlotte,N.C get in abt 3.20 pm and then taking a greyhound to Columbia,SC for my daughters Army Graduation at Fort Jackson,S.C

    • wxbrad

      Late Tuesday afternoon into the evening it when it really cranks up.

      • tb1181

        do you know around what time? and will it be safe to travel

        Thank You

        • wxbrad

          I expect roads to be very slick at night for sure but during the day not sure how they will be doing yet.

  • Jenn Coligado

    Thanks for always keeping us informed, Brad! I live in Fort Mill with four kids and no non-electric heat source. Preparing today in case this turns out as bad or worse than expected. I shared your blog on mine :-) http://neverjustahousewife.blogspot.com/