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Early Thoughts on Isaac in the Carolinas

mgWeb_WRF_20120824-150000_ASE_ECONUS_F00720000_PgeneralSfcPres_R12km

It’s still early but some thing are slowly coming into better agreement on the eventual path of Isaac. There is still much uncertainty on the strength of the storm once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico but once there is will have the opportunity to gain strength. The model guidance is pretty solid now in the next 72-84 hours thanks to the NOAA Gulf stream upper air recon flights. Additional upper air data will be added by special sounding launches over the U.S. the next few days. I’m actually a bit more certain on the landfall location then what happen after landfall. So here we go with the maps and modes.

Currently Isaac is not doing well thanks to dry air.

20120824.1845.goes13.x.vis1km_high.09LISAAC.50kts-1000mb-168N-710W.100pc

 

The track guidance is clustered in the Florida panhandle.

coast

Inland it starts to get muddled.

inland

GFS model shows a huge heavy rain event for the Carolinas Wed-Thu

gfs_precip_mslp_east_43

gfs_op_apcp_f120_se

gfs_op_apcp_f132_se

The EURO is much further west and drier, but we would still be in the moist eastern side of the remnants.

ecm_mslp_uv850_east_8

ecmwf_apcp_f150_se

Conclusion:

It’s still early but I can’t see us not seeing at least some rain during the end of next week. So we need to stay alert for where and how strong Isaac will get. The god news is we have time and over the weekend I will post a more detail video outlook for the Carolinas. Right now everyone in the eastern Gulf needs to be ready and inland especially the mountains need to be ready for heavy rain. History shows that these land falling systems tracking just west or right over the area of the Southern Appalachians typically bring heavy rain. Stay tuned!

prepared

  • http://twitter.com/NCMattJ Matt Johnson

    I see some falling trees in our future here in WNC.

  • jared29715

    Hmm… tornado threat would also be a possibility, right?

    • wxbrad

      with the GFS possible we need to be in the NE quadrant for a tornado threat.

  • http://twitter.com/PoloSwagger1999 Tyrese Najae Lawson

    Do it look like we will see tornadoes. severe weather .

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