Well after a nice break from our active April severe weather pattern. A return to an active storm track makes its returns this week. The month of May typically is when we see our most severe weather around the Carolinas. So this is really not abnormal, it’s just after the April we have had, it seems to be overkill.
Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday
The set-up for this week has a stalled front just to our southwest. That front really is hard to find this morning but last nights storms developed right along it in South Carolina near I-26. We have a big low off the Northeast coast and a big low in the middle of the country. Plus a blocking pattern of the North Atlantic which means nothing is in a hurry to move. Sound familiar? (See April’s weather). The upper level flow is northwest which will bring in vortices maximums over the next few days. These vort maxes will interact with the front to bring the chance for severe storms starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday. We also will see some mesoscale stuff going on which we won’t really won’t pick up on until things start to form.
It’s going to be tough to determine whether we see scattered afternoon thunderstorms or night time MCS (thunderstorm complexes). Both are certainly possible and with northwest flow the MCS track will likely set-up right over the Carolinas. These nighttime thunderstorm complexes are sustained by warm moist inflow that keeps them going into the early morning hours. They also often leave behind outflow boundaries or mini cool fronts that can be the trigger for afternoon thunderstorms. The model output seems to point to MCS developing late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The below maps are from the predawn hours Wednesday morning.
Futurecast Radar CAPE (Storm Fuel)
This is May in the Carolinas and time to get ready for the chance for severe storms. Stay tuned!