Severe Weather Threat Early Wednesday

The ingredients are coming together again for a severe weather outbreak across the southeast. This doesn’t look anything a severe as last week but still has the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. So the tornado threat is smaller but the wind threat is higher this go around.

While the timing is better for less severe storms during the coolest part of the day. It’s also problematic because it will occur in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. This makes getting warnings out harder when people are sleeping or getting ready for school & work.  Here’s a quick discussion of what’s coming together today and overnight.

 

Severe Weather Outlook from SPC:

day1otlk_1300_prt

Tornado Threat:

day1probotlk_1300_torn_prt

Damaging Wind Gusts of 58mph or higher:

day1probotlk_1300_wind_prt

CAPE:

Even at 5am Wednesday morning our Futurecast and the HRW model show a nasty squall line moving in from the west. Below in the CAPE or thunderstorm fuel(in red) and the future radar from the HRW model:

mgWeb_WRF_20111122-120000_ASE_ECONUS_F00183000_PconvCape_R4km

Future Radar at 5am Wednesday morning from our Futurecast model:

You can clearly see a squall line with what appears to be bowing segments. When we see this type of configuration we call it a QLCS(Quasi-Linear Convective System). These QLCS’s can have damaging winds but often small vortices that can produced shorted lived tornadoes. Something I’ll be watching very closely overnight.

2011-11-22_1046

 

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  • Anonymous

    Going to be updating the timing today at 5 & 6 pm on WCNC.