Tough Forecast for Early Next Week

No one ever said forecasting the weather was easy. Starting Sunday it gets even harder than normal for us forecasting the weather in the eastern half of the country. The problem is a cut-off low that develops Sunday.

These types of lows because they are cut-off from the main steering currents in the atmosphere become extremely difficult to forecast. Mainly because until they actually cut-off you don’t know exactly where this will happen. Then because they are out of the main steering flow the movement of them is hard to gauge. Then with this one you throw in cold air aloft and now snow/rain/sleet are thrown into the mix. (No pun intended Smile) Which makes me want to pull out what little hair I have left on my head.

Here’s what I know right now based on the available data at this time.

ECMWF or Euro model Tuesday:

Notice that 540 line (blue dashed line) over the piedmont of NC? That is the rain/snow line and notice there is moisture there which could mean snow mixed with rain Tuesday night, even in Charlotte.

ecmwf_apcp_f114_us

GFS Model same time as above:

The position of the upper low is the same, but the GFS is colder and drier over the piedmont. Looks plenty cold enough for a few flakes but we get dry slotted so likely nothing.

gfs_op_apcp_f90_us

GEM or Canadian model same time frame:

This model has an upper low much further south and east which puts us in very heavy rain.

can_apcp_f90_us

HPC snowfall outlook:

As you can see I’m not the only one struggling with this. HPC or NOAA has a huge area of possible 1” snow but the chances are only 10-20%. Basically this means uncertainty…big time!

prb_24hsnow_ge01_2011112600f072

Snow amounts?

Too early to know but the same GFS model mentioned above plots this.Take it with a extremely large grain of salt.

CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR

Conclusion:

Stay tuned this could be very interesting and very frustrating. There is extreme uncertainty in the forecast right now, but once the low cuts-off we will have a much better idea. That will likely happen Sunday.

  • LET IT SNOW!!!! LET IT SNOW!!!! LET IT SNOW!!!! Makes it feel more like Christmas than anything!!! Hope you had a Wonderful Thanksgiving Brad….. Don’t pull out too many hairs over this…… Cause we are just starting with winter…..hahahahaha

  • Thanks for keeping up updated as usual! I’m certainly hoping for more snOMG this year. After the Christmas storm of 2010, I’m spoiled-LOL Hope you and yours had a fabulous Thanksgiving holiday 🙂

    • Anonymous

      Thanks we had a great day, we just did dinner on my break after the 6pm.

  • Nice summary of all the players, Brad. Good luck with this one 🙂

    • Anonymous

      Thanks Tom!

  • NOPE!!

    I kinda like the odd man out for the SNOW.. It’s way 2 early for that.. I was curious with the polar vortex “collapsing” make our winter a lot colder than normal? I read somewhere that it was in a similar situation back in winter of 85 and I remember well how cold it stayed from Jan. through late Feb. That being said and it’s a La Nina season, I can only imagine the snow amounts we could see if this were to show it’s a**.. Thanks Brad.. Have a blessed weekend..

    • Anonymous

      I think this winter is going to be very similar to last winter. Really cold early then a quick warm-up in February. There are several analog years on my Winter Forecast post http://wp.me/p1srzO-xz for comparison. Thanks for the comment.

  • jared29715

    Is the ECMWF the only model suggesting possible snow for Charlotte?

    • Anonymous

      right now yes but even that is starting to look like the GFS.

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