Cold week ahead but just not as cold!

Our pattern of cold and stormy weather isn’t really going away this week. Even with a nice warm-up we had Sunday. More cold air and more winter storm chances await this final week of February. The only difference this week is we won’t be as cold as last week, but there are at least 2 chances of winter weather ahead in the next 7 days. Though honestly both are right on the border of being nothing or possibly something bigger. 

1st the pattern remains cold for at least one more week:

Here’s a look at the GFS ensemble mean highs and low for the next 10 days. Yes, it’s colder than average mostly just not as bad as the arctic air of the past week.

2015-02-22_20-09-00What about storm chances?:

Right now, there are a few close call and possible a bigger storm late week. The late week storm is still kinda sketchy honestly it’s too far out to even take seriously and too many changes will happen between now and then. As I always like to say the pattern is favorable, but don’t believe the specifics this far out. Being 1st is not nearly as important as being right in my opinion with these storms. Yet the late week storm has bigger potential impacts.

Storm #1:

Close call Monday night with sleet or snow chances likely but not a big deal as it’s a fast-moving wave passing off to our south. Timing works in favor of a brief mix because it’s the middle of the night.

2015-02-22_20-01-11Storm #2:

This storm shows much more promise of potential for bigger snow or sleet. Mainly because it’s a more developed low but the track appears too far south. There also appears to be more cold air in place thanks to anchoring high to the northeast. Which should set up a nice wedge of cold air over the Carolinas. That being said any shift back west or north means more potential for snow. Which is something I do suspect will happen.  Most models always keep storms too far south this far out and usually a trend back west or north happens as we get closer. The other factor with storm #2 is could linger into Friday and early Saturday if it cranks up!

2015-02-22_20-03-09 2015-02-22_20-04-02Potential snowfall through Thursday morning from Storm 1 & 2 via the NAM model

2015-02-22_20-06-29Bottom Line:

The last week of February and the 1st few days of MArch are going to be active and cold. So hold on to your hats Winter ain’t done yet!