We aren’t going to see a repeat of the widespread flooding rains from Sunday. In fact, we might only see a 40% chance of isolated storms at best. What we will lack in coverage of storms and rain we will make up for with strength. Read more
With all the talk about derechos today which frankly is a term that’s been around forever I thought I’d re-share this blog post from a few years back. These types of storms are hard to forecast though you usually know if the set-up is there. The problem is you usually don’t know if they will be classified as a derecho until they start or until they are over. Kinda similar to the F-scale which is a post event determination based on the exact definition below. I should also note no 2 events are ever the exact same and every event should be treated independent of the previous events. Plus remember it’s just a name for a type of storm. The impacts are damaging winds 60-100 mph, flash flooding, large hail and even tornadoes with these storms. That type of damage can come from severe storms even if they are not technically a derecho.
There’s little doubt that last year 2011 was know among meteorologists and the public as the year of the tornado. Mainly because of the number of tornadoes but also the extreme death tolls driven by large outbreaks in April and May. This year I have noticed a different trend in the severe weather numbers. Hail!
I’m keeping a close eye on the storm system down in Louisiana and Mississippi right now. This system has brought flooding rains and severe storms to Texas already and is doing the same tonight along the Mississippi river. I expect the system to weaken a bit but there will be enough energy left with this that it bears watching for some strong storms. I don’t expect any tornado threat right now unless the triple point track right over us.
The severe weather threat for Wednesday is slightly increasing based on the latest guidance I’m analyzing tonight. The current trends in the radar and satellite clearly shows wherever this potent low goes, so does the severe weather threat.
Unfortunately all the ingredients are coming together for severe weather here in the Carolinas today and again tonight. There will be 2 waves of storms we need to watch out for. The threat today will be just slightly lower than the one tonight but in both cases the shear profiles in the atmosphere will be conductive for supercell thunderstorms. These rotating storms not only can produce tornadoes which is likely but also large hail and damaging winds. Here’s a quick video run down of the set-up and timing. This a very dangerous situations please take all watches and warnings very seriously.