Thursday winter storm potential, then a milder pattern

This is going to be an active week of weather with 2 storms heading our way. The first one tonight into Tuesday will be mainly rain for the piedmont but some snow for the mountains. Storm #2 on Wednesday night into Thursday will bring snow for most of the area including the Charlotte area. The real question is will it be just flurries or will there be accumulations? Here’s my video briefing on the situation this morning and like most of this winter the guidance has been very unreliable with this storm as well.

 

Here’s a look at the storm tracks and snowfall potential from HPC(Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center).

                     Storm Tracks                                       Chances of 1” of snow Thursday

lowtrack_ensemblesprb_24hsnow_ge01_2011020712f072

 

Here’s our Furturecast model for 7am Thursday

mgWeb_WRF_20110207-120000_ECONUS_F00720000_PwinterThickness_R12km

Here’s the EURO(ECMWF European Model)

ecmwf_apcp_f84_us

NAM model sounding

2011-02-07_1121

Ready for Spring? Here’s the good news!

The good news if you are ready for Spring all signs point to a major pattern shift to milder weather after this weekend. The NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO(Arctic Oscillation) both go from their very negative territory this winter to positive. This along with the long range models all point to milder air starting late this weekend into next week.

ao.mrf (1)nao.mrf